Stock : ON

Side   : Long

Entry : 68.30

Qty    : 400

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• QQQ remains range-bound between ~$704–722, with price currently near the lower boundary.
• $702–705 is key support; a strong rejection here could trigger a bounce toward $710–714.
• $720–722 remains major resistance and the range ceiling.
• A 4H close below $702 could signal range breakdown, exposing ~$695–690.
• A 4H breakout above $722 would invalidate the range setup and open room toward $730–735.
• Until a confirmed breakout/breakdown, buy near support and sell near resistance remains the range-trading framework.
• Volume is not showing a decisive breakout, supporting the ongoing consolidation/range structure.
• The descending trendline overhead keeps the broader setup cautious, so confirmation outside $702–722 is important before expecting a larger directional move.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : PEP

Side   : Long

Entry :134.54

Qty    : 300

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : CRCL

Side   : Long

Entry : 80.34

Qty    : 500

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

Key Levels

Resistance: 710 → 715 → 720–722 → 728–730
Support: 703–700 → 696 → 688–690

• Structure: QQQ remains in a short-term bearish/consolidation phase, trading below the descending trendline and below the $710–715 resistance cluster.
• Key Support: $703–700 is the major demand zone. Price is currently testing this area; holding it could keep the range intact.
• Range: QQQ has been consolidating inside roughly $703–722, with repeated failures near the upper boundary.
• Bearish Trigger: A decisive 4H close below $700–702 would weaken the structure and open downside toward $696, followed by $688–690.
• Bullish Trigger: Reclaiming $710–712 would be the first sign of strength, while a breakout above $720–722 could target the descending trendline around $726–730.
• Momentum: Technical readings remain weak; QQQ is below its short-term moving averages, while some oscillators are approaching oversold territory. 
• Macro Catalyst: Today’s Fed decision is the major volatility catalyst. Elevated Treasury yields near 5% have been pressuring growth/tech valuations, although yields pulled slightly below 5% ahead of the decision.

• SPY is sitting at a critical support zone around 759–760, which is the lower boundary of the current consolidation range.
• Price has been making lower highs beneath the descending trendline, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
• Immediate resistance: 764–766, followed by 768–772 where the descending trendline and prior supply converge.
• Major resistance: 778–780 — the top of the multi-week range. A clean breakout above 780 would invalidate the current bearish setup.
• If 759–760 breaks decisively, downside opens toward 756–754, with the previous breakout area around 752–754 becoming the next key support.
• The bullish scenario requires a reclaim of 768–772; that could trigger a move back toward 778–780.
• Overall: Neutral-to-bearish while below 768–772. SPY is at an important decision point — hold 759–760 = potential bounce; lose it = deeper correction.

Stock : WDC

Side   : Long

Entry : 435.50

Qty    : 50

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

Snapshot

• Price: ~$72–76 | 52W: $71–160 | Mkt cap: ~$31–32B
• P/E: ~12x | Fwd P/E: ~10–11x | Div yield: ~2.7%
• FY26 EPS guide: $6.15–6.25 | FCF yield: ~7%
• Verdict: cheap on every multiple, but earnings are still falling and the legal overhang is unresolved — watchlist / scale-in zone above $70, not a full-size buy yet.

Overview

• World's largest pure-play animal health company (pet + livestock medicines, vaccines, diagnostics), headquartered in Parsippany, NJ.
• Stock ~$72–76, near the 52-week low of ~$71 and down roughly 53% from the 52-week high of $160; the all-time high was ~$234 in Dec 2021.
• P/E has compressed from the mid-30s to ~12x - the premium is gone.

Business model

• Two segments: companion animal (dogs/cats/horses — the majority of revenue) and livestock (cattle, swine, poultry, fish).
• Sells through veterinarians; key franchises are dermatology (Apoquel/Cytopoint), parasiticides (Simparica Trio) and OA-pain antibodies (Librela/Solensia).
• Holds roughly 22–28% share of the global companion-animal drug market.

Fundamentals

• Q2 2026: revenue flat at $2.5B, adjusted EPS $1.87 — EPS beat by a cent, revenue slightly light.
• The problem is the U.S.: U.S. revenue fell 7% and companion animal sales fell 11% on softer demand, price sensitivity, competition, and generics hitting Cerenia and Convenia plus lower Librela sales.
• The offset: livestock sales rose 23% on cattle and poultry strength.
• FY26 guidance cut twice: revenue $9.12–9.32B (organic −3% to −1%), adjusted EPS $6.15–6.25.
• Margins still elite — ~70% gross, ~28% net, ROE well above 50%.

Valuation metrics

• ~12x trailing / ~10–11x forward earnings, ~14x FCF, ~7% FCF yield — multiples near a decade low versus its own history.
• Dividend ~2.7% yield ($0.53/qtr), plus a $6B buyback partly funded by $1.75B in convertible notes — ~10% trailing buyback yield.
• Street consensus is Hold; several brokers have cut targets, with recent PTs clustered $80–96.

Technical analysis

• Structure: five-year downtrend from ~$234 (2021 ATH); the 2026 leg was a waterfall after the May Q1 miss — no base built on the way down.
• Consolidating in a tight range near $75 since the May selloff — first pause in the trend, not yet a reversal.
• Support: $70–72 (52-week low zone). A weekly close below it opens the low-$60s.
• Resistance: $80 (post-earnings spike high ~$79.5), then $95–100 (the May gap).
• Trigger: weekly close above $80 on volume for a swing toward the gap; until then it's a range, not a trend trade.

Future growth outlook

• Bull case: international expansion, livestock momentum, and next-gen three-month antibodies Lenivia and Portela, plus a claimed 12+ potential blockbusters in the pipeline.
• Bear case: securities class actions alleging management misled investors on Librela safety and competitive erosion across Simparica Trio, Apoquel, and Cytopoint; U.S. pet spending remains soft.
• Key catalyst: Q3 results in early November - the market wants proof U.S. companion animal spending has stopped shrinking.

Stock : COP

Side   : Short

Entry : 137.40

Qty    : 250

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Neutral-to-bearish while below $720–722.
The cleanest setup is rejection from $720–722 → $706/$702. Bulls need a convincing breakout above $722 + trendline to regain control.

• Range-bound: QQQ is consolidating inside a clear $702–722 range, with price currently around $714.85.
• Major resistance: $720–722 is the key supply zone. Multiple rejections here indicate sellers are active.
• Trendline resistance: The descending blue trendline is still overhead; QQQ needs a decisive breakout above it to shift the structure bullish.
• Immediate support: $706–704 is the critical support zone. This area has repeatedly attracted buyers.
• Bearish setup: The recent structure shows repeated swings between ~$706 and ~$720, with rejection near the upper boundary. A move back toward $706 → $702 is likely if $712–710 fails.
• Bearish confirmation: A 4H close below $702 would break the range and open downside toward $695–690, potentially lower.
• Bullish invalidation: A strong 4H close above $722, followed by acceptance above the descending trendline, would invalidate the range-bearish setup and target $730–735.

• Structure: SPY broke out of the previous 730–756 consolidation range and rallied toward 779, establishing a new higher trading range.
• Current setup: Price is now at 757.90, testing the old 756 breakout resistance, which has become the most important near-term support.
• Support: 756–758 is critical. Holding this zone and getting a 4H close back above 762–764 would favor a rebound.
• Resistance: 768–770 is the first major hurdle, followed by 775–779, the range high. A clean breakout above 779 would signal continuation higher.
• Bearish trigger: A decisive 4H close below 756 would weaken the breakout structure and increase the probability of a move toward 752 → 748 → 740.
• Bullish scenario: If 756 holds, expect a bounce toward 768, then potentially 775–779. Strong volume on the rebound would make this setup more convincing.
• Overall: Bullish-to-neutral at 758, but this is a critical retest. 756 is the line in the sand—holding it keeps the breakout intact; losing it risks a false-breakout reversal.

Stock : BG

Side   : Short

Entry : 125.20

Qty    : 250

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• Structure: QQQ remains in a broad consolidation/channel, with price repeatedly rejected from the descending resistance trendline. The bigger structure is still range-bound rather than a confirmed breakout.
• Current setup: Price around $716 is sitting in the middle-upper part of the range after bouncing from the $701–705 demand zone. Buyers are attempting another push higher.
• Immediate resistance: $720–723 is the first hurdle. A sustained 4H close above this zone would strengthen the bullish case.
• Major resistance: $726–730 aligns with the descending blue trendline. This is the key breakout area; reclaiming it could open $735 → $742–748.
• Support: $710–712 is the first short-term support. Below that, $701–705 remains the major demand zone and has produced multiple reactions.
• Bearish scenario: Failure around $720–730, followed by a break below $701, would invalidate the current bullish recovery and expose $690 → $680.
• Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above $705, but the chart remains range-bound until $730 is decisively broken. The compression suggests a larger move is building; current QQQ technical commentary also identifies the ~$700–745 region as the broader range.

• Range-bound: SPY remains in a tight consolidation zone between $760–$780 after the strong August breakout.
• Resistance: $775–$780 is the key supply zone; repeated rejection here keeps upside capped.
• Support: $760–$763 is immediate support. A break below $760 could trigger a deeper correction.
• Current setup: Price at $765.96 is near the lower half of the range, showing short-term weakness.
• Bearish scenario: Failure to reclaim $770–$775 → retest of $760, with $755–$750 next if support breaks.
• Bullish scenario: Strong close above $780 would confirm a range breakout and open the way toward $790–$800.
• Bias: Neutral-to-bearish short term while below $775; the broader trend remains bullish unless $760 breaks decisively.

Stock : CVX

Side   : Short

Entry : 210.50

Qty    : 200

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : MSTR

Side   : Long

Entry : 136.65

Qty    : 250

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• QQQ is trading around 719, showing a recovery from the 702–707 demand zone and forming a short-term higher-low structure.
• 710–712 is the immediate support; holding above this level keeps buyers in control and favors another attempt higher.
• 724–726 is the first resistance, where some profit-taking/rejection can occur.
• The major hurdle is 730–732, aligning with the descending trendline and previous rejection area.
• A 4H close above 730–732 with strong volume would confirm a trendline breakout, targeting 740–745 and potentially 748–750.
• If price gets rejected around 730 and loses 710, the next major test is 702–707 support.
• Below 702, the bullish structure weakens significantly, with downside levels around 695–698 and then 680–685.
• Overall bias: Mildly bullish while above 707; breakout above 732 turns strongly bullish.

Overview

• Spun out of DuPont on Nov 1, 2025 and went straight into the S&P 500, trading on NYSE under "Q"
• Pure-play advanced electronics materials supplier across the semiconductor value chain; ~10,000 employees, HQ Wilmington, Delaware
• Led by CEO Jon Kemp, who ran DuPont's Electronics & Industrial business before the split
• Market cap $25.2B; 52-week range $70.50–$177.28 — down ~32% from the high, still up ~40% YTD

Business model

• Sells consumables used at nearly every step of chip making — revenue scales with wafers processed, not one customer's capex
• Semiconductor Technologies: CMP pads and slurries, photoresists, cleaners — $744M net sales in Q2 FY26
• Interconnect Solutions: thermal and signal management for PCBs and advanced packaging — $685M in Q2
• Roughly two-thirds of the portfolio tied directly to semis, leveraged to AI, HPC and the 2D→3D stacking shift

Fundamentals

• TTM revenue $5.21B (+14.8%), net income $586M, EPS $2.79
• Q2 FY26: revenue $1.4B, adj EPS $1.19 vs $1.06 consensus — ninth straight quarter of profitable growth
• FY26 guidance raised to revenue $5.55–5.65B and adj EPS $4.40–4.60 (from $3.80–4.14)
• Margins: gross 46.2%, EBITDA 29.3%, net 11.3%; FCF $825M
• Carries spin-off leverage: $4.53B debt vs $961M cash, D/E 0.60, Debt/EBITDA 2.88
• ROE 6.7% and ROIC 7.4% — thin returns for the multiple; Piotroski F-Score 4

Valuation metrics

• Trailing PE 43.2, forward PE 25.0, PEG 1.32
• EV/EBITDA 18.9, P/S 4.8, P/B 3.5, P/FCF 30.6
• FCF yield 3.3%; dividend $0.32 (0.27% yield), payout ratio just 11%
• Not statistically cheap — the discount is to its own price, not to the sector
• 8 analysts, consensus Strong Buy, average target $176.75 (~47% upside)

Technical analysis

• Price $120.47 sits below the 50-DMA at $135.59 and just under the 200-DMA at $121.62 — first real test of the long-term line
• RSI 39.6 — weak, not washed out
• August traded $125.31–$146.67; that band has broken and now sits as overhead supply
• Support: $121 (200-DMA) → $110–115 → $100. Resistance: $135 → $147 → $177
• Short interest only 2% of float, institutions hold 79% — this is de-rating, not a short attack

Future growth outlook

• The 2D-to-3D architecture shift raises process steps and material intensity per wafer — more content per chip made
• Management flagged 50%+ YoY growth in advanced packaging, thermal management and AI PCBs at the Deutsche Bank conference
• Street models revenue +12.6% and EPS +22.3% CAGR over three years
• Ken Rizvi joins as CFO Oct 1; term loans were repriced lower in July
• Risks: new US tariffs on Taiwan, Korea and Japan supply chains, AI-capex sentiment, and a short standalone operating history

Snapshot

• Picks-and-shovels AI materials supplier, 32% below its high, sold off with the sector rather than on company news
• Cheap only on forward numbers (25x FY26 EPS) — trailing metrics are rich, returns on capital are low
• $121 is the level. Holds = accumulation zone; loses = wait for $110–100
• Position sizing matters — this is a cyclical growth name on discount, not a defensive value stock

Not investment advice.

• Consolidation: QQQ is consolidating between the $702–707 support zone and the descending trendline resistance near $728–730.
• Support Holding: Price has repeatedly bounced from the $702–707 demand zone, making it the key level for bulls.
• Bullish Setup: The recent price action resembles a double-bottom / higher-low formation near support, suggesting potential upside.
• Breakout Trigger: A clean breakout above $722–725 would strengthen momentum and open the way toward $730+.
• Major Resistance: The descending trendline around $728–730 remains the key barrier; a break above it could signal a larger move toward $740–750.
• Bearish Scenario: A decisive break below $702 would invalidate the bullish setup and could trigger a deeper correction toward $690–680.

Overall: Bias is cautiously bullish above $702–707, with $730 as the immediate upside target. The setup is essentially support → breakout → descending trendline test.

https://seekingidea.com/community/post/swing-trade-new-position-in-oracle-orcl-aug-25-2026
ORCL - Trade Close with Profit

• Structure: SPY remains inside a descending channel/consolidation after the rejection near 779–780. Price is now around 765, sitting near the middle/lower portion of the range.
• Immediate support: 764.7–765.0 is the first key zone. Holding this keeps the short-term bullish recovery structure intact.
• Major support: 762.2–762.5. A 4H close below this would weaken the setup and could open 760 → 758.
• Resistance: 767.5–768.5 is the first major hurdle and also overlaps with the descending trendline. A clean breakout with volume would be significant.
• Upside targets: Above 768.5, watch 771.8, then 775.0–775.5. A breakout above 775 could bring 779–780 back into play.
• Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above 764–762, but SPY needs to reclaim 768+ to confirm momentum. Until then, expect choppy price action within the yellow channel.

Stock : BA

Side   : Long

Entry : 209

Qty    : 150

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• Bearish structure remains intact: QQQ is trading below the descending trendline from the June high, indicating continued selling pressure and lower-high formation.
• Key resistance: 721.79 is the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this level, along with the falling trendline, would weaken the bearish setup and open the door toward 735–750.
• Current zone: Price is around 707, sitting near short-term support. A failure to reclaim 715–722 could trigger another leg lower.
• Downside levels: The first important support is around 700, followed by 675.91 and 668.76. A break below 668.76 would significantly weaken the broader structure.
• Major support: 636.90 remains the key historical breakout/support zone and could become relevant if the current correction accelerates.
• Overall view: Bearish below 721.79. If QQQ gets rejected from the resistance/trendline area, we can expect a move toward 690–676, with 668.76 as the next major downside target. A clean breakout above 721.79 would invalidate this bearish short-term projection.

Overview

• AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) — largest US auto parts retailer, 7,856 stores across US, Mexico and Brazil
• Trading ~$2,977, roughly 32% below its Sept 2025 high of $4,354 and sitting near 52-week lows
• Market cap ~$48.6B at 20.4x trailing earnings
• Peer O'Reilly held its multiple through the same period — the market discounted AZO specifically

Business model

• Sells replacement parts and accessories only — no repair or installation revenue
• Two engines: DIY retail (~66% of sales) and commercial DIFM (~29% and growing double digits)
• Megahub hub-and-spoke network — 150+ built, targeting ~300 — delivers same-day parts density
• Commercial program now live in 94% of domestic stores
• No dividend; all excess cash goes to buybacks — $38.5B returned since 1998

Fundamentals

• Q3 FY26 sales $4.84B, up 8.4% — the best growth in over three years
• Domestic comps +4.1%, but commercial +10.4% versus DIY at only +2.2%
• EPS $38.07; nine-month EPS essentially flat at $96.74 vs $96.17
• The culprit is non-cash LIFO — a ~$207M FY26 drag, roughly $9/share after tax
• Ex-LIFO, Q3 gross margin actually expanded 20bps and adjusted EPS grew 12.5%
• ROIC 36.3% — still elite, but down from 47.7% a year ago
• DIY traffic is -3.6%; ticket inflation is carrying the comp

Valuation metrics

• 19.8x FY26E EPS of ~$150 and 16.9x FY27E of ~$176
• ORLY trades near 31-32x — AZO now sits at a ~40% discount to a peer it historically tracked closely
• Adjusted debt/EBITDAR at 2.5x, right at management's target; book equity negative by design
• Consensus target ~$3,956, with recent cuts from TD Cowen ($3,500) and Barclays ($3,637)
• FCF yield is only ~3.5% — ~$1.6B of capex eats the gap between earnings and cash

Technical analysis

• 52-week range $2,902 to $4,388 — price is in the bottom 3% of that range
• Deepest drawdown since 2020, with the ATH close at $4,354 on 11 Sep 2025
• $2,900-2,950 is the line in the sand; losing it opens air below
• First resistance near $3,300, then the $3,600-3,650 shelf where analyst targets cluster
• Trend is still down — this needs a base, not a catch

Future growth outlook

• LIFO drag is collapsing: -212bps in Q1, -138bps in Q2, -77bps in Q3, -45bps guided for Q4
• That reversal alone is why consensus has FY27 EPS jumping ~17%
• Commercial and megahub build-out remains the real engine in a highly fragmented market
• Aging US fleet plus expensive new and used cars keeps replacement demand structural
• The catch: buybacks fell from ~$3.7B a year in FY23 to ~$1.8B — share count now shrinks 2.1% vs 5-7% historically
• That removes 4-5 points from the EPS algorithm, so much of this de-rating is arithmetic, not panic

Snapshot

• Quality: elite — 36% ROIC, dominant scale, minimal digital disruption risk
• Value: cheap versus its own history and versus ORLY, but not deep value at a 3.5% FCF yield
• Bull case: capex peaks, FCF and buyback recover, multiple re-rates toward $4,000
• Bear case: DIY traffic stays negative once inflation fades, and $2,750 is fair
• Verdict: accumulate on weakness, not a table-pounder
• The number that decides it is the FY27 capex guide on Sept 22 — not Q4 EPS

Not investment advice. Do your own research.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : EFOR

Side   : Long

Entry : 30.45

Qty    : 1000

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IEX trade closed @ 223.90 with Profit.

https://shorturl.at/kxhUW 

https://seekingidea.com/community/post/swing-short-trade-new-position-abnb-aug-26-2026
ABNB - Trade closed @ $183.48 in Profit.
 

https://seekingidea.com/community/post/mlm-new-long-position-53980-swing-trade-aug-24-2026

ADDING 50 more shares into the MLM position @ $507.80, which brings the average price to $523.80 with a total of 100 shares.

• Key levels:
  - Resistance: $720–725 → $735–740 → $748–750
  - Support: $702–708 → $690 → $670
  - Bullish trigger: Break & 4H close above $725
  - Bearish trigger: Break below $702

• Trend: QQQ remains within a broad descending channel, with the upper blue trendline continuing to act as resistance. Price is currently around $717.
• Immediate resistance: $720–725 is the key supply zone and trendline resistance. A clean 4H breakout above this area would improve the bullish setup.
• Key support: The purple $702–708 zone is the most important near-term support. Price needs to hold this area to avoid further downside.
• Bearish setup: The current structure still shows lower highs. A rejection from $720–725 followed by a break below $702 could trigger a move toward $690, then $670.
• Bullish scenario: If QQQ reclaims $725 with strong volume, the next targets are $735–740, followed by the $748–750 area.
• Overall: Bearish/neutral below $725. The chart favors a downside retest while price remains below the descending trendline. The $702–708 zone is the key decision area.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : GOOG

Side   : Long

Entry : 334.35

Qty    : 120

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Stock : AEE

Side   : Long

Entry : 105.35

Qty    : 250

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• Key levels:
  Resistance: $720–725 → $735–740 → $750–755
  Support: $700–705 → $690 → $670
  Major bullish trigger: 4H close above descending trendline
  Major bearish trigger: 4H close below $700

• Structure: QQQ remains inside a broad descending channel/consolidation after the June high near $750, with lower highs forming beneath the blue resistance trendline.
• Immediate resistance: Price is currently around $716, testing the descending trendline. A decisive 4H close above $720–725 would be the first meaningful bullish signal.
• Key support: The $700–705 zone is the major horizontal support. Buyers have repeatedly defended this area, making it critical for maintaining the current structure.
• Bullish scenario: A breakout above the descending trendline could trigger a move toward $735–740, followed by a possible retest of the $750–755 June highs.
• Bearish scenario: Failure at the trendline followed by a breakdown below $700 would weaken the structure and open $690 → $670 as the next downside zones.
• Overall view: Neutral-to-bearish below $720–725, but the setup can turn bullish quickly on a confirmed trendline breakout. Until then, the risk remains tilted toward a rejection and retest of $700.

Earnings Week Ahead 

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : CRCL

Side   : Long

Entry : 87.58

Qty    : 400

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• Bullish structure: SPY has formed a higher-low structure after holding the 763–767 consolidation zone, with price now pushing back toward the upper resistance area.
• Immediate resistance: 776–779 is the key supply zone. This area has rejected price multiple times and sits near the recent high.
• Bullish breakout setup: A decisive 1H close above 779 would confirm a breakout from the range and could open the way toward 782–784 / new highs.
• Key support: 767–763 is the immediate demand zone. Holding this area keeps the bullish setup intact; a pullback/retest here could provide another upside opportunity.
• Major downside level: 760–758 is the broader support zone. Losing 763 and then 760 would weaken the current bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
• Overall view: Bullish above 763, with the current structure favoring a move toward 776–779, followed by a potential breakout toward 782–784 if buyers successfully clear the resistance zone.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION
Stock : JD

Side   : Long

Entry : 28.45

Qty    : 1200

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : WING

Side   : Long

Entry : 113.30

Qty    : 400

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Stock : ABNB

Side   : Short

Entry : 188.50

Qty    : 150

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Stock : AKAM

Side   : Long

Entry : 109.10

Qty    : 250

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : VECO

Side   : Long

Entry : 46.80

Qty    : 700

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• Bullish structure remains intact after the sharp breakout above the previous 756–760 resistance zone, which has now turned into a key support area.
• Price is currently forming a tight consolidation between ~764–768, suggesting a pause rather than a clear trend reversal.
• 760–762 remains the major support zone; holding above this area keeps the broader bullish setup valid.
• A decisive breakout above 768–770, preferably with strong volume, would signal the continuation of the uptrend and open the way toward 772–776.
• 780 is the key psychological resistance/high zone; a sustained break above 780 would confirm a fresh breakout and potentially extend the move into new highs.
• Bullish view: after the breakout from this consolidation phase, we can expect a good bounce from these levels toward 780+ and potentially new highs. A breakdown below 760 would weaken this setup.

Overview

Price: ~$145 | Market cap: ~$338B | Dividend yield: ~3.0% | Forward P/E: ~20.8x

• World's largest consumer packaged goods company, founded 1837, operations in ~70 countries, ~109,000 employees.
• Five segments; brands include Tide, Ariel, Pampers, Gillette, Olay, Head & Shoulders, Oral-B, SK-II, Vicks, Charmin.
• FY2026 (ended 30 June 2026): revenue $87.0B, net earnings $16.1B, core EPS $6.89.
• New CEO Shailesh Jejurikar took charge on 1 Jan 2026 and is halfway through a two-year restructuring.
• Stock at ~$145 — roughly 15% below its December 2024 all-time high of $171.23.

Business model

• Sells low-ticket everyday essentials people repurchase regardless of the economic cycle — recurring, non-discretionary demand.
• Massive scale plus shelf dominance gives it real pricing power with retailers like Walmart, Costco and Amazon.
• Good/better/best brand ladder keeps the customer in-house even when they trade down (Tide → Gain, Pampers → Luvs).
• Best-in-class profitability for staples: 50.2% gross margin, 22.7% operating margin in FY26.
• E-commerce is now ~20% of total revenue and grew 6% in FY26.

Fundamentals (FY2026 actuals)

• Revenue $87.0B, +3% — but organic sales grew only +1%, and that entire 1% came from price. Volume was flat.
• Core EPS $6.89, +1%; currency-neutral core EPS was flat. GAAP diluted EPS $6.62, +2%.
• Margins compressed: gross margin -100bps, operating margin -160bps year over year.
• Q4 was the soft spot — organic sales 0%, core EPS -3%, core operating margin -130bps on heavy marketing reinvestment.
• Cash engine intact: operating cash flow $19.6B, free cash flow ~$15.1B, adjusted FCF productivity 100%.
• Returned $15.3B to shareholders ($10.2B dividends + $5.0B buybacks); share count down ~1.3%.
• Revenue mix: Fabric & Home 35%, Baby/Feminine/Family 23%, Beauty 18%, Health 14%, Grooming 8%.
• Beauty was the only genuine grower (+7% sales, +4% volume); Baby/Feminine/Family organic fell -2% in Q4.

Valuation metrics

• Trailing P/E ~21-22x; forward P/E ~20.8x on the FY27 core EPS midpoint of $7.00.
• Three-year average P/E ~24.6x, five-year ~25.0x — PG trades roughly 17% below its own recent norm.
• Dividend yield ~3.0% versus a five-year average nearer 2.4-2.5% — the yield is doing the valuation work.
• Payout ratio ~62% of core EPS. FCF yield ~4.5%. Total shareholder yield (dividend + buyback) ~4.5%.
• Analyst targets cluster $160-172, but the rating skew has drifted to Hold after downgrades from Argus and TD Cowen.
• Honest caveat: PG is cheap against its own history, not cheap in absolute terms. 20.8x for ~1.5% guided EPS growth is not a deep-value multiple.

Technical analysis

• Structurally weak since the Dec-2024 top at $171.23; 52-week range $137.62 – $167.25.
• Currently trading below both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA — the downtrend has not been invalidated yet.
• Support: $143-144 (recent base), then $137.62 — that low is the level that matters.
• Resistance: $152-158 (moving-average cluster), then $167.
• RSI in the mid-40s — no oversold washout here. This is a slow grind sideways, not a capitulation bottom.

Future growth outlook

• FY27 guidance: organic sales +1% to +3%, core EPS $6.89-$7.11 (midpoint $7.00, +1.5%).
• Management is absorbing a $0.56/share cost headwind — an 8% drag — led by ~$1B after-tax in raw materials, energy and transport.
• Restructuring: up to 7,000 non-manufacturing roles (about 15% of that workforce) removed by FY27, at $1-1.6B pre-tax cost; the second half of the spend hits FY27.
• P&G is deliberately discontinuing brands and product forms, knowingly cutting 30-50bps off FY27 organic growth to protect margin.
• Bright spots: Beauty, and Greater China stabilising at +4% organic in both Q4 and the full year.
• The bear case in one line: with volume flat, pricing is doing all the work — if consumers push back or private label keeps taking share, that lever runs out.

Why it balances the portfolio

• Consumer staples is the classic defensive sector — detergent, diapers and razors get bought in a recession too, so earnings hold up when cyclicals crack.
• PG's beta is roughly 0.35-0.40 versus the market's 1.0, so it historically falls far less than the index in a drawdown.
• 70 consecutive years of dividend increases and 136 years of paying one — the 3% yield keeps paying you while you wait for the market to sort itself out.
• A 3% dividend plus a 4.5% FCF yield gives you a return floor that doesn't depend on multiple expansion.
• Honest caveat: defensive means less downside, not no downside. PG has been in its own 15% drawdown while the index made highs — treat it as a shock absorber for the portfolio, not a market-timing hedge.

Snapshot

• Quality: elite — 50% gross margin, 100% FCF conversion, fortress balance sheet.
• Growth: weak — +1% organic, flat volume, +1.5% guided EPS.
• Valuation: reasonable versus its own history, not a bargain in absolute terms.
• Income: excellent — 3.0% yield, 70-year streak, ~62% payout, ~$15B returned every year.
• Setup: below both key moving averages; needs to reclaim $152-158 to confirm a turn, with $137.62 as invalidation.
• Verdict: a defensive value anchor for the boring sleeve of a portfolio — own it for the yield and the drawdown protection, not for the growth.

Not investment advice. Do your own research before acting.

Stock : ORCL

Side   : Long

Entry : 144.65

Qty    : 250

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• QQQ remains under a descending trendline, keeping the broader 4H structure bearish until a decisive breakout above this resistance.
• Price has now pulled back into the 701–708 support/demand zone, which has acted as an important reaction area multiple times.
• The current move looks like a support test rather than a confirmed breakdown; holding this zone could trigger a short-term relief bounce.
• Bullish confirmation: reclaiming 710–713 would strengthen the rebound case, with 718–722 as the next major resistance/trendline area.
• A breakout above the descending trendline would be the key structural shift and could open the way toward 730–735 again.
• Risk remains below 701: a decisive 4H close below the support zone would invalidate the bounce setup and signal further downside.

All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK HIGHS at some point today Freeport-McMoRan

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Quest Diagnostics

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Gold positioning is turning increasingly bullish. 🟡

The gap between call and put open interest on the gold ETF $GLD has surged to ~2.4M contracts — the highest level since February.

That’s a +1.0M increase in just three weeks, with positioning accelerating after the U.S. Treasury unexpectedly doubled its planned buybacks of long-dated government debt.

Current positioning is now more than 3x the 2021–2024 average of ~0.8M contracts.

We saw a similar surge to ~2.8M contracts in January–February, when gold pushed above $5,500/oz for the first time.

The message is clear: renewed macro and currency uncertainty is driving investors to aggressively position for higher gold prices.

Sentiment is shifting again. 🟡📈

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : STNE

Side   : Long

Entry : 9.59

Qty    : 4000

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MODEL PORTFOLIO (Positional Buy Only) - NEW POSITION

Stock    : RDDT
Side      : Long
Entry    : 151.61
Qty       : 30

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : MLM

Side   : Long

Entry : 539.80

Qty    : 50

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

• QQQ remains in a descending channel, with price continuing to trade below the major falling trendline.
• Price is currently testing the 713–715 area, but upside momentum remains limited below the 720–722 resistance.
• The 700–705 zone remains the key support area and could act as a demand zone for the next rebound.
• If QQQ holds 700–705, we could see a recovery toward 720–725, followed by 730–740 if the trendline breaks.
• A decisive breakout above 720–722 would provide stronger confirmation of bullish momentum and could shift the short-term structure higher.
• However, a breakdown below 700 would invalidate the bullish setup and could expose QQQ to 690–680 on the downside.

Overall Bias: Neutral to Bullish above 700–705, with 720–722 acting as the key breakout level.