Stock : ADI

Side   : Short

Entry : 418.50

Qty    : 80

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Snapshot

• Price ~$33 | Fair value $40–45 | Upside 20–35%
• P/E ~17x | Yield ~2.9%
• The bet: a cash-generating rural moat priced as if the margin damage is permanent. I think margins mend.
• What breaks it: comps roll negative again and guidance gets cut a second time (they already cut once in July)
  
  Overview
• Largest rural lifestyle retailer in the US: 2,486 stores across 49 states, plus 135 Petsense pet stores
• Stock around $33, roughly 43% below its 52-week high near $58
• Market cap ~$17.4B. The market is treating this like the business is broken. I don’t think it is.

Business Model

• Sells needs-based stuff to hobby farmers, ranchers and rural homeowners: feed, livestock and pet supplies, fencing, hardware
• Consumables bring people back every few weeks, in good economies and bad
• About 30% of sales come from owned and exclusive brands, which is where the margin is
• Quietly building a pet health leg: Allivet (online pet pharmacy) and VIP Petcare (mobile vet clinics)

Fundamentals (Q3 2026)

• Revenue up 5.1% to $3.91B, ahead of the ~$3.82B street estimate
• Comps +0.4%. The monthly trend is what I like: negative in July, positive in August, stronger in September
• EPS $0.43 vs $0.49 last year, so margins are the real issue here
• Gross margin 36.4% vs 37.4% (freight, fuel and price cuts)
• Full-year guide reaffirmed: adjusted EPS $1.90–2.00
• Management bought back stock at an average of ~$32.66 last quarter, basically today’s price

Valuation Metrics

• ~17x the FY26 EPS midpoint, for a company that sat at a mid-20s multiple for most of the last decade
• $0.96 annual dividend, ~2.9% yield
• Street average target ~$38.6. Morningstar had fair value at $48 with a wide-moat rating as of May.
• My fair value: $40–45 (about 20x a modestly recovering 2027 EPS), which is roughly 20–35% upside
• Insiders bought ~20,000 shares over the last 90 days

Technical Analysis

• Price has been chopping around $33. The 50-day (~$33.5) and 200-day (~$33.3) moving averages are flat and stacked together, which looks like a base.
• Line in the sand is the 52-week low near $28.4
• A clean push through the high-$30s would tell me the re-rating has started

Future Growth Outlook

• Still expanding: 91 new stores opened this year, with plenty of runway in underserved exurbs
• Pet health gives them a higher-margin, recurring revenue stream
• Closed 74 weak Petsense stores, so they’re cleaning house
• Targeting $75M+ in extra cost cuts across 2027–28
• Digital sales growing double digits
• What I’m watching:
  • Transaction count still slipping (-0.3%)
  • Big-ticket and companion animal categories are soft
  • Debt is up to $2.2B from $1.7B
  • Amazon, Chewy and Walmart are pushing on pet.

• Bearish Structure: QQQ has formed consecutive lower highs and lower lows following its rejection from the $755–760 resistance zone.
• Trendline Breakdown: Price has decisively broken below the multi-month ascending trendline, weakening the broader bullish structure.
• Key Level Breakdown: QQQ has fallen below the psychological $700 level, indicating increasing selling pressure.
• Volume Confirmation: Recent selling activity has been accompanied by higher volume, suggesting stronger bearish participation.
• Immediate Resistance: The $696–703 zone is the first resistance area. Failure to reclaim this region could trigger another leg lower.
• Downside Targets: Initial support lies around $683–680, followed by $670 and $660–662 if bearish momentum accelerates.

• Overall Outlook: Bearish bias remains intact. A temporary recovery towards $700–703 is possible, but rejection from this region could push QQQ towards $680. Bullish recovery requires reclaiming $715–730.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : TUR

Side   : Long

Entry : 29.52

Qty    : 1000

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SWING TRADE - NEW SHORT POSITION
 

Stock : VZ

Side   : Short

Entry : 45.03

Qty    : 800

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Stock : MCK

Side   : Short

Entry : 998.35

Qty    : 30

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A breakdown below $710 could open the door toward $700, while a sustained move above $728 would weaken the immediate bearish outlook.

• Bearish Structure: QQQ has shifted into a short-term bearish structure, forming lower highs and lower lows following its rejection near the $760 region.
• Trendline Breakdown: Price has broken below the ascending trendline that supported the recovery since late July, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
• Immediate Resistance: The $720–$728 region is acting as immediate resistance. Any recovery toward this zone could attract fresh selling pressure.
• Major Resistance Zone: The $746–$750 area remains a significant supply zone, where QQQ previously faced strong rejection.
• Immediate Support: The $710 level is an important near-term support. A decisive break below this area could accelerate downside momentum.
• Downside Target: If selling pressure persists, QQQ could revisit the $700–$698 support zone, followed by $690.
• Volume Analysis: Recent price declines have been accompanied by noticeable selling activity, suggesting continued distribution and cautious market sentiment.
• Market Outlook: The short-term outlook remains bearish as long as QQQ trades below $728. A sustained recovery above this level would be needed to improve the technical structure.

Overview

• Wynn runs some of the most premium casino resorts in the world: Las Vegas, Macau and Boston.
• The stock has dropped from ~$135 to ~$74 this year, which puts it right on my value watchlist.
• Q3 earnings come out on Nov 5, so expect volatility around that date.

Business Model

• Macau brings in about half the cash flow, Las Vegas around 40%, and Boston the rest.
• They go after the high-end customer. Wynn Las Vegas runs margins above 33%, which is top tier on the Strip.
• The big growth bet is Wynn Al Marjan Island in the UAE. It’s 40% owned and opens September 2027 as the first casino in the Gulf.

Fundamentals

• Q2 beat estimates: EPS came in at $1.24 vs $1.01 expected, on revenue of $1.86B (+7%).
• Quarterly EBITDAR has been flat at roughly $530–570M for six quarters. Macau growth is offsetting a softer Vegas.
• One thing I don’t love: part of Macau’s Q2 strength came from unusually high table hold (basically luck), not just volume.
• Debt is heavy at ~$10.7B, about 3.8x EBITDAR. That’s the main risk here.

Valuation Metrics

• Market cap is ~$7.6B, and EV / EBITDAR is ~7.6x, well below its historical range.
• P/E is ~17x 2026 earnings, so it isn’t “cheap” on earnings. The value shows up on an asset and cash-flow basis.
• The dividend pays $1/year (~1.35% yield).
• My sum-of-the-parts fair value is ~$95. Analyst average target is ~$120, though many targets were cut this month.

Technical Analysis

• On the weekly chart, price is testing the rising trendline that connects the 2022 low (~$51) and the 2025 low (~$65).
• This week dipped to $70.79 and closed back at $74.13, so far a hold of the line.
• Weekly RSI is ~28, which is oversold. The last time it got this low was near the 2024 bottom.
• Support: $70.8, then $65, then $51.
• Resistance: $80, then $90, then $100.
• A weekly close below ~$69 breaks the trendline for me.

Future Growth Outlook

• The UAE resort is the swing factor. Management guides ~$345M of extra EBITDAR once it’s running.
• The UAE budget rose $600M to $5.7B (partly due to the Iran conflict), and opening slipped to Sept 2027.
• Macau is the near-term worry: four straight months of revenue declines, and October looked weak too.
• If Macau stabilises into 2027 and the UAE opens on time, this can re-rate fast.

Snapshot

• Price: ~$74 | Fair value (my base case): ~$95 | Risk: High
• Thesis: a quality luxury operator at a depressed multiple, with a UAE growth kicker.
• My approach: start small near the trendline, and add after Q3 if commentary holds up.

Stock : IBKR

Side   : Long

Entry : 81.21

Qty    : 300

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QQQ remains under short-term bearish pressure following its rejection near $760 and the breakdown of the ascending trendline. The $726–$730 region is the immediate level to watch. A rejection here, followed by a break below $710, would strengthen the bearish case toward $700–$695.

• Bearish Structure: QQQ has faced strong selling pressure after getting rejected from the $760–$762 region. The price has formed lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers currently have the upper hand in the short-term structure.
• Resistance Zone ($746–$750): This is a major supply zone where the price previously faced rejection. QQQ needs to reclaim this area and hold above it to establish a stronger bullish structure.
• Trendline Breakdown: Price has broken below the ascending yellow trendline, which had been providing support since late July. The recent recovery appears to be a retest of the broken trendline, making this an important area to watch for potential rejection.
• Immediate Resistance ($726–$730): QQQ is currently trading around $725.55, near short-term resistance. Failure to break above this region could trigger another selling wave.
• Support Zone ($710–$713): This area has acted as a short-term demand zone during recent price movements. A breakdown below it could expose the next support around $700–$703.
• Major Support ($695–$700): If bearish momentum continues, QQQ could revisit this region. A decisive break below $695 would weaken the structure further and potentially open the door to lower levels.
• Bearish Price Projection: The recent rebound from approximately $700 looks corrective rather than a confirmed trend reversal. If price gets rejected around $726–$730 and breaks below $710, a move toward $700 or potentially $695 becomes more likely.
• Bullish Invalidation: A sustained move above $730 would improve the short-term outlook. Reclaiming $740–$750 would provide stronger evidence of a bullish recovery and weaken the current bearish setup.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : GOOGL

Side   : Long

Entry : 298.4

Qty    : 100

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : FTNT

Side   : Long

Entry : 136.5

Qty    : 250

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• Market Structure: QQQ has shifted to a short-term bearish structure after rejecting the October highs near $760, with lower highs indicating weakening bullish momentum.
• Immediate Resistance: The $725–$730 zone is the key level to watch. A rejection here could trigger another leg lower, while a sustained breakout could support further recovery.
• Major Resistance: The $746–$750 region remains a significant supply zone. Buyers need to reclaim this area to improve the broader technical outlook.
• Immediate Support: The $715–$718 zone is the first important support. A breakdown below this area could increase selling pressure.
• Downside Targets: If QQQ loses $715, the price could move toward $705–$700, followed by $695–$698 if bearish momentum accelerates.
• Trendline Breakdown: Price has broken below the ascending yellow trendline, suggesting that the previous uptrend has weakened and sellers may retain control in the short term.
• Volume Analysis: Selling volume increased during the recent decline, while the rebound from around $697 indicates buying interest at lower levels. Further confirmation is needed to establish a sustained reversal.
• Bullish Scenario: A decisive move above $730 could open the door toward $740–$750. A breakout above $750 would further weaken the bearish structure.
• Overall Outlook: QQQ remains bearish to neutral in the short term. A rejection near $725–$730 followed by a breakdown below $715 would strengthen the downside case, with $700 as the primary target.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock :HOOD

Side   : Long

Entry : 96

Qty    : 350

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : RDDT

Side   : Long

Entry : 137.33

Qty    : 300

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : STNE

Side   : Long

Entry : 8.13

Qty    : 4000

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Stock : FLEX

Side   : Long

Entry : 78.41

Qty    : 400

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Trading Outlook: The near-term bias is bearish below $760, provided SPY confirms the breakdown on the 4-hour timeframe. A sustained move back above $772 would weaken this outlook, while a break below $760 could open the door toward $750.

• Bearish Structure: SPY is trading around $764.41, with price action showing weakening momentum after repeated rejections from the $775–$780 resistance zone. The recent swings suggest sellers are gaining control.
• Symmetrical Triangle Formation: Price has been consolidating between descending resistance and rising support. The pattern indicates compression, and the latest price action suggests a potential breakdown toward the lower end of the structure.
• Immediate Support at $760–$762: This is the key area to watch. SPY is testing the rising trendline, and a decisive 4-hour close below this zone could confirm a bearish breakdown.
• Major Downside Target at $750: If the rising trendline fails, the next potential target is around $750, aligning with the downside projection marked on the chart. Further selling could expose the $740–$745 region.
• Resistance at $768–$772: Any short-term recovery will face resistance in this zone. SPY needs to reclaim this area to stabilize its near-term structure and reduce immediate downside pressure.
• Strong Supply Zone at $775–$780: This remains the major resistance area. Previous attempts to sustain prices above this zone have faced selling pressure, making it an important level for any bullish reversal.
• Volume and Momentum: Recent price swings show selling pressure emerging during declines, but the chart alone does not establish a confirmed high-volume breakdown. A clear increase in selling volume would strengthen the bearish case.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION
 

Stock : RY

Side   : Short

Entry : 200.45

Qty    :150

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Short-term bias: Bearish. QQQ has broken its rising trendline, lost the $720–$725 area, and is now testing psychological support near $700. The combination of deteriorating price structure and elevated selling volume favors further downside unless buyers reclaim $720–$725.

• Bearish Price Action: QQQ closed at $704.47, down 2.86%, with a sharp sell-off from the recent high near $760. The formation of consecutive lower highs suggests that sellers are gaining control of the short-term trend.
• Rising Trendline Breakdown: Price has broken below the yellow ascending trendline that supported the rally from the late-July low near $660. This breakdown weakens the bullish structure and increases the probability of further downside.
• Resistance at $720–$725: The recent rebound toward this zone failed to sustain momentum, indicating that former support may now act as resistance. QQQ would need to reclaim this area to improve its short-term outlook.
• Major Resistance at $745–$750: The green horizontal zone around $746–$750 represents a significant supply area. The rejection from this region, followed by the recent sell-off, reinforces the current bearish structure.
• Bearish Channel Formation: The consolidation between August and September formed a descending channel. Although price subsequently broke above this structure, the latest reversal has erased much of the bullish momentum and raises concerns about a failed continuation.
• Volume Confirms Selling Pressure: The recent decline is accompanied by elevated trading volume, particularly around the latest red candles. This suggests stronger selling participation, although follow-through in subsequent sessions will be important for confirmation.
• Immediate Support at $700–$702: This is the first important level to monitor. A decisive daily close below $700 could expose the next support zone around $690–$695.
• Downside Targets: If selling continues and $690 fails to hold, QQQ could move toward $680–$685, with the $660–$665 region representing a deeper support zone from the previous swing low. The projected path on your chart also suggests a potential move toward the $690 area before any meaningful recovery.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : CHKP

Side   : Long

Entry : 151.49

Qty    : 200
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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN LRCX

Stock : LRCX

Side   : Long

Entry : 231

Qty    : 140
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Overview

• KKR & Co. (NYSE: KKR), one of the biggest alternative asset managers in the world, ~$796B AUM
• Stock at ~$89, down roughly 45% from the early-2025 peak and ~38% off the 52-week high of ~$145
• The odd part: the business just printed its best quarter ever while the stock kept bleeding

Business model

• Three engines: asset management (PE, infra, credit, real estate), insurance (Global Atlantic), and Strategic Holdings
• Most of the value is in recurring management fees on ~$638B of fee-paying AUM, not lumpy carry
• Recently added Arctos (sports franchise stakes), a new and growing niche

Fundamentals

• Q2 2026 fee-related earnings: $1.2B, up 37% YoY; $1.32/share
• Adjusted net income: $1.63/share, up 40%. Strongest monetization quarter in the firm’s history
• FRE margin ~70%, above 65% for 10 straight quarters. That’s real operating leverage
• $133B raised in the last 12 months, a record

Valuation metrics

• ~17x annualized Q2 FRE and ~14x annualized Q2 ANI. Cheap for a 20%+ grower in this group
• GAAP P/E ~27x, but GAAP is noisy for alt managers. FRE and ANI are what I’d look at
• Market cap ~$78B, dividend ~$0.78/yr (yield under 1%), plus buybacks
• Street average target ~$122, about 35% above current levels

Technical analysis

• Clear downtrend all year. Price sits below both the 50- and 200-day averages (~$100–103)
• Key support is the $82–85 zone, where the 52-week low and the mid-October flush both sit
• First resistance is ~$92, then $100–103. Reclaiming that area is what would change the trend for me
• RSI was in the high 20s in early October, so selling looks stretched, but there’s no confirmed reversal yet

Future growth outlook

• Growth drivers: infrastructure buildout, Asia, retirement/insurance flows, and private wealth (K-Series)
• The bear case is private credit. Redemption caps across the industry have spooked everyone
• But direct lending is a small slice of KKR, roughly $40B of ~$796B AUM
• One honest caveat: management already flagged that the $7+ 2026 ANI target may slip as some exits get pushed to 2027

Snapshot

• Quality compounder priced like a broken credit shop
• Biggest risks: a prolonged private credit unwind, slower exits, and high beta (~1.8)
• Next catalyst is Q3 earnings in early November. Watch fundraising and credit commentary
• My take: a value accumulation zone near $82–89, sized for volatility. Not a momentum buy until it gets back above ~$100

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN LEN

Stock : LEN

Side   : Short

Entry : 400

Qty    :77.64

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN BIDU

Stock : BIDU

Side   : Long

Entry : 78.82

Qty    : 450
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Stock : GLW

Side   : LONG

Entry : 135.72

Qty    : 200

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN LLY

Stock : LLY

Side   : Short

Entry : 40

Qty    :1268

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN ARM

Stock : ARM

Side   : Long

Entry : 223.95

Qty    : 140
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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN NFLX

Stock : NFLX

Side   : Long

Entry : 69.82

Qty    : 500
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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN VISA

Stock : V

Side   : Short

Entry : 70

Qty    : 403.34

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SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : SOFI

Side   : Long

Entry : 14.50

Qty    : 2000
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• SPY is trading around $763.27, testing the rising trendline support that has been holding since late June.
• Price is forming a symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows indicating a tightening consolidation range.
• $760–$763 is the key support zone. A hold here could attract buyers and trigger a short-term rebound.
• Immediate resistance sits at $766–$768. Reclaiming this zone would be the first sign of improving bullish momentum.
• A move above $768 could push SPY toward $772, followed by the major resistance zone at $776.
• On the downside, a confirmed 4H close below $760 would weaken the structure and expose $756 and $752.
• Volume has picked up during recent price swings, but a clear breakout with follow-through is still needed to confirm the next move.
• Outlook: SPY is at a critical decision point. Holding $760–$763 keeps the rebound scenario alive, while a breakdown below support would favor further downside.

• Market Structure: QQQ has turned bearish in the short term after rejecting the $760–$767 resistance zone, forming lower highs and experiencing a sharp sell-off toward $722.
• Key Support: Price is testing the rising trendline around $720–$723. A breakdown below this area could expose $710–$715, followed by $695–$700.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance stands at $728–$732, followed by $738–$742. The $747–$750 zone remains a major resistance area.
• Momentum: Selling pressure has increased following the rejection near recent highs. Buyers need to defend the current trendline and reclaim $732 to signal improving short-term momentum.
• Bullish Scenario: If $720–$723 holds, QQQ could rebound toward $738–$742. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door to a retest of $747–$750.
• Bearish Scenario: A confirmed 4H breakdown below $720 would weaken the rising trendline structure and increase downside risk toward $710–$715 and potentially $695–$700.

Overall Bias: Short-term bearish, but QQQ is approaching critical trendline support. The next move will likely depend on whether buyers defend $720–$723 or sellers force a breakdown.

• Market Structure: SPY is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle, defined by descending resistance and ascending support. The latest sell-off has pushed price back toward the lower half of the structure, weakening short-term momentum.
• Key Resistance: 770–773 is the immediate resistance zone, where the descending trendline intersects recent price action. A reclaim of this area could open the way toward 776–780.
• Key Support: 763–764 is the critical ascending trendline support. If buyers defend this level, SPY could rebound toward 770–773. A break below it would expose 760–758.
• Bearish Scenario: A decisive 4H close below 763 would signal a potential breakdown of the triangle, increasing the probability of a move toward 760–758.
• Bullish Scenario: If SPY holds 763–764 and reclaims 770–773, a recovery toward 776–780 becomes possible. A breakout above 780 would strengthen the bullish outlook.
• Overall Bias: Neutral-to-bearish in the short term. Price is testing rising support after rejection from the upper resistance zone. The next directional move will likely depend on whether buyers defend 763–764 or sellers force a breakdown.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : CRCL

Side   : Long

Entry : 79.65

Qty    : 500
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• Trend & Structure: QQQ remains bullish after breaking out of the descending channel, but short-term momentum is weakening following rejection near $767.
• Support Zone: $733–$738 is the key demand zone. Price is pulling back toward this previous resistance-turned-support area, where buyers could re-enter.
• Pullback Scenario: If QQQ holds $733–$738 and forms a bullish rejection, a recovery toward $748–$750 is possible.
• Resistance & Upside Targets: A breakout above $750 could open the way toward $758–$760, followed by a retest of $765–$767.
• Bearish Scenario: A decisive 4H close below $733 could invalidate the immediate bullish setup, exposing $725–$728 and potentially $715–$720.
• Bias: Cautiously bullish above $733–$738. Watch for a bullish reaction at support and a reclaim of $748–$750 for confirmation. A breakdown below support would shift the bias bearish. Volume confirmation is important.

I've had BLDR on the watchlist since it lost $100 back in spring. It closed at $51.71 on Tuesday, which is another 52-week low and about 76% below the high it printed in early 2024. I don't usually write up a stock that is still making new lows, but this one just landed on a level I've had drawn on the chart for over a year, so it's time.

Overview

• Largest supplier of structural building products to US homebuilders. Roughly $15B of revenue in a normal year, headquartered in Texas.
• The stock has gone from $215 to $52 in about two and a half years. One-year return is close to -60%.
• Both earnings reports this year were misses, and both came with a guidance cut. Next print is October 29. Keep that date in mind for everything below.

Business model

• They sell lumber, trusses, wall panels, millwork, doors and windows to builders, and increasingly they install it too. Hundreds of yards and plants across 40-plus states.
• Around 70% of sales come from new single-family homes. That is the whole story right now, for better and worse.
• The part I actually like is the manufactured side (trusses, panels, ready-frame). That carries better margins than moving commodity lumber around, and it's what separates them from a generic distributor.
• They have bought 42 companies since 2021, adding about $2.3B of annual sales. Good businesses, but acquisitions have been part of why debt is where it is.

Fundamentals – the Q2 numbers, no sugar-coating

• Revenue $3.9B, down 8.8%. Gross margin 28.1%, down 260 bps. Management blamed lower starts and competitive pricing, which is a polite way of saying everyone is cutting price to win bids.
• Adjusted EBITDA $329M, 8.5% margin. A year ago it was 12%.
• Adjusted EPS $1.17 against $2.38. On a GAAP basis they actually lost money in Q2 (small loss, $4M) after a $47M loss in Q1. I can't remember the last time BLDR printed a quarterly loss.
• Free cash flow was $32M in the quarter. Last year's Q2 was $255M. Full-year FCF guide is $400-500M, versus $874M in 2025.
• Balance sheet is the thing that keeps me up. Net debt $4.6B, 3.6x EBITDA, up from 2.3x a year ago. Most of that debt bought back stock: $8.3B spent since 2021, retiring half the share count at an average of $81. The stock is $52. That trade has not aged well.
• Full-year guide now: sales $14.0-14.8B, EBITDA $1.0-1.2B. In 2025 they did $15.2B and roughly $1.6B. They are assuming single-family starts fall about 7% this year.
• On the positive side: $115M of annualised cost cuts, 36 facilities consolidated, capex trimmed by $50M, about $1.6B of liquidity and nothing maturing until 2030. Nobody is going bankrupt here.

Valuation – cheap on what, exactly?

• Market cap is about $5.5B. Add the net debt and you get an enterprise value near $10B. Always look at EV with this name; the equity is less than half the picture.
• EV/EBITDA is roughly 9x on this year's trough guide and about 6.5x on last year's EBITDA. So it's cheap if you believe 2025 was closer to normal than 2026. That's the bet.
• Trailing GAAP P/E is in the 50s and tells you nothing. On adjusted estimates I get somewhere around 13-15x this year and roughly 10x next year, with the caveat that next year's estimate has been cut twice already.
• FCF yield around 8% at the bottom of the cycle. I'll take that, as long as the cash goes to debt and not more buybacks at the wrong price.
• The street is lukewarm. Consensus is Hold, average target in the mid-70s to mid-80s. One shop just started coverage at Sell with a $52 target, basically saying "it's fairly priced where it is." Targets have been cut all year, which is normally what the bottom looks like, but normally isn't always.

Technical – why I'm writing this now

• The yellow box on my weekly chart, roughly $48-53, is the 2021 breakout base and the mid-2022 low. Price spent most of a year building there before the big run. It's the most important level on the whole chart, and we're sitting on it.
• Weekly RSI is around 29. That's the most oversold this stock has been since 2020. Every meaningful bounce in BLDR's history has started from readings like this. But I'll also say RSI hasn't been above 50 for 18 months, so "oversold" has been a trap more than once this year.
• The structure is still a staircase of lower highs from the 2024 top. Every rally has died at the falling 50-week.
• The biggest red volume bar in two years came on the July earnings gap. That looks like capitulation. What I don't have yet is a reversal candle, and I'm not going to pretend one exists.
• Levels I'm using: support $48-53, then $40 if it goes. Resistance $58-60 first, then $65, then the $75-80 zone where it broke down from in the summer.
• Invalidation is simple. A weekly close below $47 means five years of support is gone and $40 is next. I don't argue with that.

Outlook

• Near term is not good and I'm not going to dress it up. Management said July got worse (Texas, Colorado, multifamily). Q3 guide is $3.6-3.9B of sales and $275-325M of EBITDA.
• The macro moved against them this autumn. The Fed turned hawkish, 30-year mortgages are back near 7%, and builders are cutting prices and piling on incentives just to move inventory.
• What hasn't changed: the US is short millions of homes and single-family starts around 900K a year is not a level that lasts. When it turns, this company has half the shares it had in 2021 and a leaner cost base, so EBITDA margins can get back to 12-14% quickly. That is where the upside lives.
• Consensus has 2027 EPS up about 30%. Fine, but that recovery has been pushed out twice this year, and I'd rather see it in the starts data than in a spreadsheet.

Bottom line

• Bull case: trough multiple on trough earnings, 8% FCF yield, the dominant player, sitting on five-year support, with real leverage to any rate relief.
• Bear case: 3.6x debt at the bottom of the cycle, buybacks done at $81 and now off the table, rates rising rather than falling, and a third guidance cut possible on the 29th.
• My take: this is a value position, not a trade. I'm willing to scale in inside the $48-53 box with a hard stop under $46, sized small enough that the stop doesn't hurt. If you want confirmation, waiting for the October 29 print costs you nothing but a few dollars of entry.
• Risk/reward as I see it: about $12 of downside to $40, roughly $25-28 of upside to the $75-80 breakdown zone. Call it 2:1. Not spectacular, but with the support behind it, acceptable.

Not advice. Do your own work, and size for the stop, not the target.

Stock : XOM

Side   : Short

Entry : 200

Qty    : 174.15

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

• Bullish Breakout: SPY has broken above the descending trendline resistance around $772–$774, suggesting a potential bullish continuation after the previous consolidation.
• Resistance Zone: Immediate resistance lies at $778–$780, followed by the recent swing high near $782. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the way toward higher levels.
• Retest Scenario: Price may pull back toward $773–$775 to retest the broken trendline before attempting another move higher.
• Support Levels: Immediate support is positioned at $772–$774, followed by $768–$770. A deeper correction could expose the $762–$764 region.
• Bullish Structure: The recent recovery from the $760–$764 region, followed by a rally toward $782, indicates improving short-term momentum and a potential shift toward higher highs.
• Bearish Invalidation: A sustained move back below $770, particularly a 4H close below $768, would weaken the breakout structure and increase the risk of a deeper pullback.
• Trading Outlook: The bias remains cautiously bullish while SPY holds above the breakout zone. A successful retest and a confirmed break above $780 would strengthen the continuation setup.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION

Stock : USAR

Side   : Long

Entry : 11.88

Qty    : 2000

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SWING TRADE - New Long Position

Stock : TTEK

Side   : Long

Entry : 33.66

Qty    : 1000

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Stock : CLX

Side   : Long

Entry : 84

Qty    : 300

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

• Bullish Breakout: QQQ has broken above the descending trendline resistance, signaling a potential trend reversal from the previous corrective structure. The breakout indicates improving bullish momentum.
• Key Resistance Zone ($746–$750): Price has moved above the previous resistance zone and is currently testing this area. Sustained trading above $750 would strengthen the bullish breakout structure.
• Retest and Support: The $746–$750 region is the immediate support zone to monitor. A successful retest followed by renewed buying pressure could provide confirmation of further upside.
• Bullish Price Structure: Following the breakout, QQQ established higher highs and higher lows, with price reaching approximately $763 before pulling back. This structure remains constructive as long as key support holds.
• Upside Targets: A sustained move above $760–$763 could open the way toward $770, followed by higher levels if bullish momentum continues.
• Downside Risk: A decisive move below $746 could weaken the breakout, exposing $740–$735 as the next support zone. A deeper correction could bring $730 into focus.
• Overall Outlook: The technical bias remains bullish following the trendline breakout. However, confirmation above $750 and a successful retest are important before expecting another upward move. Failure to hold the breakout zone would increase the risk of a false breakout.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN TD

Stock : TD

Side   : Short

Entry : 300

Qty    : 114.65

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

• Bullish Trendline Breakout: QQQ has broken above the descending trendline near $727–$730, signaling a potential bullish trend reversal and a shift in the short-term market structure.
• Resistance Zone ($748–$750): Price is testing a critical horizontal resistance zone. A sustained 4H close above $750 would strengthen the bullish continuation setup and confirm acceptance above the breakout area.
• Immediate Support ($744–$746): Following rejection near $762–$763, QQQ pulled back toward $745 and recovered. Holding this zone is essential to maintain the current bullish structure and establish a potential higher low.
• Upside Targets ($760–$763 and $768–$770): A decisive breakout above $750 could trigger another test of the recent swing high at $762–$763. Further strength above this level would expose the $768–$770 region.
• Downside Risk ($738–$740 and $727–$730): A sustained breakdown below $744 could trigger a deeper retracement toward $738–$740, with the former descending trendline around $727–$730 acting as the next potential support zone.
• Technical Outlook: The short-term bias remains bullish as long as QQQ holds above $744–$746. However, confirmation above $750 is needed to strengthen the upside case, while a breakdown below $744 would weaken the breakout structure and increase downside risk.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN ENS

Stock : ENS

Side   : Long

Entry : 180.80

Qty    : 200

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Stock : SNPS

Side   : Short

Entry : 501

Qty    : 70

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

SWING TRADE - NEW SHORT POSITION IN MICROSOFT

Stock : MSFT

Side   : Short

Entry : 530.36

Qty    : 75

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.

• Trend: QQQ has shifted into a bullish 4H structure, forming higher highs and higher lows after breaking the multi-month descending trendline.
• Breakout: Price has decisively cleared the 747–750 resistance zone, confirming a breakout from the previous consolidation range.
• Momentum: Strong upside expansion from the 710–720 region reflects aggressive buying pressure, with price now trading around 760.
• Resistance: 760–762 is the immediate supply zone. A sustained 4H close above this area would strengthen the continuation setup.
• Targets: A confirmed breakout above 762 would put 770 and 775 in focus as the next upside objectives.
• Support: The former 747–750 resistance becomes the primary support/retest zone, followed by 735–740 and 720–725.
• Bias: Bullish above 747–750. A successful retest would favor continuation toward 770–775, while a decisive 4H close below 747 would weaken the breakout and increase downside retracement risk.

SWING TRADE - NEW POSITION IN BOOKING HOLDING

Stock : BKNG

Side   : Long

Entry : 159.02

Qty    : 500

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Note: All content, trading ideas, signals, setups, open positions, and closed positions in this sheet are for educational and informational purposes only. They should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any security or specific assets.