• Oil Price, bond yield, war news  but still market is holing on higher levels
• Technically  SPX is strong uptrend on all time frames
• Yesterday we close little lower after Friday shooting star candle 
• Friday Closing is still important here, only go long once we close above Friday's close
• Short term support is around 7140 and main support is at 7000

Trend: Bullish, but at a decision zone near ATH. The trend will turn bearish below $668

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 676
• Support: 668

Bullish Scenario:
Sustained breakout above 676 → continuation toward 690+

Bearish Scenario:
Break & hold below 668 (loss of 1H EMA support) →

• 652 (first target)
• 636 (extended move)

Context:
Momentum is strong but slightly stretched (RSI elevated).
This is not a trend reversal yet — only a potential pullback setup.

Plan:
Wait for confirmation (no anticipation). Trade acceptance, not levels.

“56 years of unbroken dividends didn't happen by accident — and they didn't stop here either.” - Abbott Lab.

Business

• 4 segments: Medical Devices, Diagnostics, Nutrition, Established Pharma (EPD)
• Key products: FreeStyle Libre CGM, Alinity, Cologuard (via Exact Sciences), heart devices, Ensure
• Operates in 160+ countries; ~55% international revenue

Q1 2026 results

• Revenue $11.16B, +7.8% YoY; adj. EPS $1.15, +6% — beat by $0.01
• Medical Devices +8.5%; Cancer Diagnostics +13%; EPD +9%
• Rapid/Molecular Diagnostics –10% — weak respiratory season
• CGM quarterly sales hit $2B; expected to re-accelerate to double digits in Q2

Guidance (FY2026)

• Full-year sales growth 6.5–7.5%; FY EPS midpoint $5.48 — cut $0.20 due to Exact Sciences dilution
• Exact Sciences acquisition ($21B, closed March 23) adds ~$3B incremental sales

Valuation

• Forward P/E 17.87x — 7.9% below medtech industry median of 19.4x
• GF Value $126.39 — stock trading ~20% below fair value; rated "Modestly Undervalued"
• Analyst avg target ~$120–140; consensus Strong Buy (32 analysts)

Balance sheet

• Cash $8.94B; LT debt jumped from $9.9B → $29.6B post-acquisition
• Debt/Equity 0.27x; current ratio 1.58x; net cash position –$5.2B
• Dividend $2.44/share, yield 2.48% — 56-year unbroken streak

Technicals (from chart)

• Down ~37% from $142 ATH; trading near 52-week low ~$87–89
• Monthly StochRSI ~35–51 — low range but not deeply oversold like BSX
• Key support $79.32; resistance $112–$114
• Distribution volume visible 2024–2026; downtrend not yet broken

The stock dropped 46% — but the business is still growing and much potential to start new uptrend. Here's what you need to know in details.

Business

• Medical devices: stents, cardiac rhythm, EP, endoscopy, neuromodulation
• Two segments: Cardiovascular & MedSurg
• Sells globally; ~36% international revenue

Q1 2026 results

• Revenue $5.20B, +11.6% reported / +9.4% organic
• Adj. EPS $0.80, +6.7% YoY — beat estimates
• Cardiovascular +13.5%, MedSurg +7.8%
• Free cash flow $170M in Q1; $3.66B TTM

Guidance (FY2026)

• Revenue growth cut to 7–8.5% (was higher)
• Adj. EPS $3.34–3.41, +9–11%
• Headwinds: Watchman softness, EP share loss, urology turnover

Valuation

• Forward P/E 18.3x — below sector median 19.8x
• EV/EBITDA 19.4x
• GF Value $103.93 → ~80% above current price
• Alpha Spread DCF $73.26 → ~28% upside
• Analyst avg target ~$96, consensus Strong Buy (21 analysts)

Balance sheet

• Cash $1.97B, Debt $11.97B, Net debt $10.0B
• Debt/Equity 0.49x — manageable
• Gross margin 68.8%, net margin 17.3%
• No dividends

Technicals

• Down 46% from $109.50 peak
• StochRSI ~25–29 — deep oversold
• Key support $45.62, resistance $74.60 / $84.90
• High-volume selloff = institutional distribution signal
• Trend: weekly downtrend, parabolic reversal pattern

Bull case

• Cheap on forward metrics vs peers
• Strong organic growth & FCF
• Deep IP moat in cardiac rhythm
• Oversold — historically bounces from here

Bear case

• Guidance slashed; 3 specific segment headwinds
• $10B net debt, no dividend cushion
• Technical damage severe; more downside possible towards $45
• Class action lawsuit + Axios stent recall overhang

MAJOR EARNINGS TODAY 

Attractively valued, but a "show-me" story

At ~11.7x FCF and ~2.9x EV/Revenue, WDAY trades near its cheapest level in years despite $2.8B in annual free cash flow and a $28B+ backlog. The core thesis rests on: (1) FCF compounding at 15–20%/yr as margins expand toward 32–35%, (2) Flex Credits monetization proving that AI upsell offsets any seat-count pressure, and (3) Finance management penetration widening the TAM. The key risk is that growth structurally slows to high-single digits if agentic AI reduces headcount and therefore per-seat licensing. Analysts' consensus Buy with avg. target ~$182 implies ~47% upside. Entry at current levels appears compelling on a 3–5 year view, provided the AI model transition executes.

Fundamentals — What the numbers say

• In fiscal year 2026, Workday posted total revenues of $9.55 billion, up 13.1% from fiscal 2025, with subscription revenues of $8.83 billion growing 14.5% year-over-year. Free cash flows reached $2.78 billion, a 26.7% increase from the prior year, and non-GAAP operating income came in at $2.82 billion, or 29.6% of revenues. These are genuinely strong cash generation numbers for a company now trading near its cheapest EV/FCF in years.
• Workday ended fiscal 2026 with a 97% gross revenue retention rate, a $28.1 billion subscription backlog, over $400 million in emerging AI ARR, and AI-linked expansion deals that averaged nearly 50% larger in size. That backlog figure is essentially multi-year revenue already under contract — a meaningful cushion against near-term uncertainty.

The core Risk: AI & the per-seat model

• The takeaway from Workday's fiscal Q4 2026 report is clear: the era of "easy growth" in SaaS is over. The 12–13% growth guidance is a sober admission that the transition to an agentic workforce is a marathon, not a sprint.
• Workday is pivoting its pricing architecture with the introduction of Workday Flex Credits — a consumption-based model that allows enterprises to pay for specific AI outcomes and "agents" they utilize, reflecting the industry-wide move away from headcount-based pricing. This is the right strategic direction, but execution risk is real.

AI Strategy & Growth Levers

• Workday positions itself as an enterprise AI platform managing people, money, and agents, serving more than 11,500 organizations and over 75 million contracted users. The company is expanding into AI agents for hiring, frontline worker experiences, and financial processes, with targeted acquisitions of Flowise, Paradox, Sana, and Pipedream to deepen AI capabilities.
• Workday's penetration in the Finance market is roughly half of its HCM market share — success there could effectively double the company's total addressable market. International growth is another greenfield, as the company still generates the vast majority of its revenue in the U.S.

Valuation — Finally reasonable

• Simply Wall St estimates WDAY is trading at roughly 51.9% below their estimate of its fair value. At ~$124/share, the market prices in considerable pessimism: ~11.7x FCF, ~2.9x EV/Revenue, and ~13.5x non-GAAP earnings — well below historical SaaS premiums.
• Based on 32 Wall Street analysts, the average 12-month price target is $182.59 with a high of $300 and a low of $115, representing about 47% potential upside from current levels. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with 19 buy ratings and 13 hold ratings.

Technical Breakdown & Trend Shift

• Workday (WDAY) is showing a clear trend breakdown after years of higher highs and higher lows. Price has decisively fallen below key moving averages (21, 50, 200 EMA), with bearish alignment now forming. This shift confirms a transition into a downtrend, supported by strong downside momentum and heavy selling pressure. RSI near oversold (~30) may trigger a short-term bounce, but it doesn’t signal a confirmed bottom in a weakening structure.
• From a levels perspective, $120 is the immediate support, with $100 as the next psychological zone. On the upside, $150–$180 becomes strong resistance, followed by the 200 EMA near ~$215. Unless price reclaims that zone, the broader outlook remains bearish, and any bounce is likely to be a relief rally within a larger downtrend.

Bottom line for a 3–5 year investor

• WDAY is a high-quality compounder undergoing a painful business model transition. The bear case is real — AI agents could structurally reduce headcount-based licensing revenue. But the bull case is also compelling: $2.8B in annual FCF, a $28B backlog, 97% retention, founder-led management, and a stock down ~60% from peak. If the Flex Credits/consumption model gains traction and Finance module penetration deepens, the stock has significant re-rating potential.

This is not financial advice. WDAY involves meaningful execution and AI-disruption risk. Consider your own risk tolerance and consult a financial advisor.

SPY is currently trading near its recent highs, and the trend is still strong on the upside. But if you look closely, we’ve seen a similar pattern before (Oct 2025) — and it’s worth paying attention.

Back in October:

• Market made a new high
• Everyone got bullish
• Then suddenly, a sharp reversal happened
• Price dropped quickly to the Fibonacci golden zone (around 0.618)
• After that, it even retested the previous swing low (~$630)

Now, the current structure is starting to look similar:

• Price is again near highs
• Momentum is slowing a bit
• RSI is also near higher levels (not much room left)

Key levels to watch now:

• $694 → This is very important
  • 21-day EMA
  • Previous breakout zone
    👉 This should act as the first strong support
• If this level breaks:
  • Next downside could be towards $680–$670 (Fib zone)
  • And in worst case, a deeper move towards $630 swing low

Simple takeaway for beginners:

• Don’t blindly chase the market at highs
• Markets often pull back after strong rallies
• Always watch support levels before entering trades

👉 Trend is still up, but risk is increasing near highs. Manage your positions smartly with a strict stop loss level of $617, which is the ATH level.

Major earnings Today 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) enters the week on a remarkable 18-session winning streak, gaining over 10% this week and nearly 50% year-to-date. Leading the surge, Intel has jumped almost 90% in April, while AMD has climbed around 65%, reflecting strong momentum across chipmakers.

However, early signs of fatigue are emerging as profit-taking begins to set in. Stocks like ARM Holdings, Broadcom, and Marvell have pulled back, with reports suggesting institutional investors are starting to sell into the rally.

Bottom line: The semiconductor trend remains bullish, but early distribution signals hint that a short-term consolidation or correction may be underway.

Key Highlight Headings

1. U.S.-Iran Talks Stalled  

Negotiations remain stuck, keeping geopolitical risk elevated.

2. Strait of Hormuz Disruption  

The near-shutdown is pushing oil prices higher and weakening risk sentiment.

3. Earnings Season Accelerates  

Around 35% of the S&P 500 is reporting this week.

4. Hyperscalers Under the Spotlight  

Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta will test whether AI spending still supports the rally.

5. Fed Decision in Focus  

Rates may stay on hold, but the Fed’s tone on inflation and energy shocks will be critical.

6. Global Central Banks to Watch  

ECB, BOE, and BOJ updates could quickly shift rate expectations.

7. Key U.S. Data Ahead  

Q1 GDP and PCE inflation will help shape the next market narrative.

Busy week ahead: geopolitics, oil, earnings, central banks, and macro data are all set to move markets.

Nvidia is clearly the AI leader by scale and dominance, AMD is the fast-growing challenger, and Intel is the turnaround story benefiting from AI CPU demand—all riding a massive multi-year AI-driven cycle.

• NVIDIA
  • FY2026 revenue: $215.9 billion (+65% YoY) 
  • Market cap: $5 trillion (world’s most valuable company) 
  • Controls ~80% of AI accelerator market, dominating GPUs 
• AMD
  • FY2025 revenue: $34.6 billion (record, +34% growth) 
  • Market cap: ~$564B+ 
  • Strong growth driven by EPYC server CPUs & AI chips
• Intel
  • FY2025 revenue: $52.9 billion 
  • Recent quarter: $13.58B revenue, beating estimates 
  • Data center & AI segment: ~$5.1B revenue 
  • Market cap: ~$405B+ 
•  Sector Insight:
  • Semiconductor index up 40%+ YTD, with AI demand driving growth 
  • Industry earnings expected to grow ~109%, far above broader tech

Sector Insights

• The semiconductor sector is witnessing a strong rally, largely driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI).
• Demand for AI chips and data center infrastructure is surging, boosting revenue outlook across the industry.
• Intel is showing signs of a comeback, supported by rising demand for CPUs in AI workloads.
• NVIDIA continues to lead the AI GPU market, benefiting the most from AI-driven growth.
• AMD is gaining market share, especially in server and AI chip segments.
• The broader semiconductor market has reached record highs, reflecting strong investor confidence.
• Despite bullish momentum, valuations are elevated, making the sector prone to short-term volatility.

Lithium carbonate prices in China climbed to CNY 173,000 per tonne, marking a three-month high and nearly 50% year-to-date surge, driven by strong EV battery demand and rising crude oil prices accelerating the shift toward clean energy vehicles.

Additional momentum is coming from global EV expansion, battery storage demand, and policy support—reinforcing lithium’s role as a critical raw material in the energy transition.

Stocks in Focus - ALM, RIO, SQM, & LIT etf

The trend remains firmly bullish, with price showing strong upside continuation. After a healthy pullback, QQQ has resumed its upward momentum, indicating buyers are back in control.

With the current structure, there is potential for an additional ~3% upside from here. As long as momentum sustains, the path of least resistance remains higher.

Avoid counter-trend trades—this is a market where following the trend is key for short-term positioning.

Expectation: A move toward the $676 zone within the next 3–4 trading sessions if momentum persists.

• Market is struggling to cross 7150 levels
• We can see kind M top and RSI divergence and it confirmed with yesterday's close
•  We saw flash dip to 7050 yesterday which was bought immediately
• Technically SPX it now in overbought zone so need to Patrice caution 
• Short term support is around now at 6980 and main support is at 6800
• Looks like we are heading toward flat weekly close

• Market Closed at new high yesterday after 2 days of small pull back
• We can see kind M top and RSI divergence, so today close is very Important
• If market close in red today this can lead to a bit bigger drop below 7000
• Technically SPX it now in overbought zone now
• Short term support is around now at 6980 and main support is at 6800
• If SPX close at new high today, than we can also expect weekly closing above 7200 tomorrow

MAJOR EARNINGS TODAY 

DocuSign looks like a classic post-hype SaaS reset — strong cash flows, high margins, and now entering a new AI-driven growth cycle, while the stock is still trading near long-term support and listing price.

Fundamental Snapshot

• FY26 Revenue: ~$3.2B (+8% YoY) 
• ARR: $3.27B (+8% YoY) 
• Gross Margin: ~80%+ (elite SaaS level) 
• Operating Margin: ~28–30% (improving) 
• Strong buybacks: $800M+ annually 

~  This is no longer a “growth-at-any-cost” company — it's now a profitable SaaS compounder.

Growth Drivers (Why the market is missing it)

1. AI Platform Shift (IAM)

• New Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) platform is gaining traction
• Already contributing $350M+ ARR 
• Early-stage adoption → long runway

~  Market is pricing DOCU like a mature e-signature tool, but it’s evolving into a full contract lifecycle AI platform

2. Expansion Opportunity

• 1.5M+ customers globally (large enterprise penetration still growing)
• Cross-sell: CLM, analytics, automation
• Recognized leader in contract lifecycle management (Gartner) 

3. Margin + Cash Flow Story

• 80% gross margins = pricing power
• Expanding operating margins (~30%)
• Aggressive buybacks = shareholder yield

~ This is transitioning into a cash machine SaaS

Why Stock Is Still Cheap

• Growth slowdown narrative (8–9% vs earlier hypergrowth)
• Temporary billings pressure during AI transition 
• Market still anchored to post-COVID decline

~ Classic “perception lag vs reality improvement.”

Technical Analysis (From Chart)

🔑 Key Observations:

• Multi-year strong demand zone: $40–45
• Repeated higher timeframe support holds (5-6 touches)
• Massive drawdown from ~$300 → deep value zone

 Current Structure:

• Price sitting near accumulation base
• Downtrend likely losing momentum and price is consolidating.

 Levels to Watch:

• Support: $40–45 (major demand zone)
• Resistance:
  • $51 (first breakout)
  • $67 & then $92 (supply zone)
  • $95+ ( Bullish trend confirmation)

Risk Factors

• Growth still mid-single digit (not hypergrowth anymore)
• Competition (Adobe, others)
• AI transition execution risk

Earnings Today 

Names like Newmont Corporation, First Majestic Silver, Agnico Eagle Mines, and others are showing base formation + breakout potential after a corrective phase.

With gold holding firm, miners look ready for a quick mean-reversion move/momentum pop — especially if resistance levels get cleared.

Gold supercycle backdrop intact: Gold prices have surged and sustained above ~$4,500, driving record margins (~70%) for major miners, which can fuel equity upside once sentiment flips. 

• Sector reset = opportunity: Despite strong gold prices, majors like Newmont are in a “trough year” with higher costs and lower production, leading to recent stock corrections — often where the best technical setups emerge.

A fake breakout traps late buyers. Smart money often uses breakout liquidity to sell, which is why failure happens fast and reversals are sharp.

Set up for next week (What to look for):

• Clear resistance zone (like the yellow band in your chart around ~640).
• Price breaks above resistance with momentum (strong green candles).
• Fails to hold above the level quickly (1–3 candles).
• Reversal starts with rejection wicks / bearish candles.
• Often accompanied by volume spike on breakout, then drop or distribution.

Entry Idea: (Only After Confirmation)

• Wait for price to fall back below resistance (failed breakout confirmation).
• Enter short on retest of resistance (now acting as supply).

Stop Loss:

• Just above the fake breakout high.

Target:

• First: nearest support (~610–600 zone in your chart)
• Second: deeper pullback (~590 or lower, as your red path suggests)

• FOMO, FOMO, FOMO at this stage as most believe this rally cant stop
• This move is unprecedented, nothing compare with!
• there is not even 20-30 point kind of pull back in this rally which very unusal!
• Technically SPX it now in overbought zone now what seem like market doesn't care!
• It only make sense to stay sideways for sometime and get long side only at pull back
• Short term support is around now at 6950 and main support is at 6800

• Another bumper positive day yesterday with  1% move
• Technically  SPX it now in overbought zone in hourly chart
• Seems like markets has priced in most good news and now FOMO trade is in play
• Possible small pull back from these levels
• Short term support is around 6800 and main support is at 6550

Technical Analysis - (Weekly Chart)

• Major Demand Zone: $150–$160 range (highlighted zone) has acted as a strong multi-year support
• Structure: Price is currently in a long-term correction phase after lower highs from the 2021 peak
• Volume Behavior: Spike in volume near support → possible accumulation
• Setup:
  • Base formation likely in progress
  • Potential mean reversion + trend reversal if structure holds

Outlook

• Bullish scenario: Sustained hold above $150 → move toward $190 → $220 → $246
• Bearish risk: Breakdown below $136 → opens downside toward $120 zone

Financial Strength

• Revenue Growth: Consistent double-digit growth historically (though moderating recently)
• Margins: High gross margins (~70%+) typical of SaaS
• Balance Sheet:
  • Debt-free or very low debt
  • Strong cash reserves
• Free Cash Flow: Positive and stable

• Yesterday upside move of 1% came as surprise  for many dispite so many neigtive news
• We admit our yesterday bias proven to be wrong
• Today Bias is slight positive to sideways
• Technically  SPX we are in uptrend  in all time frames
• upside next target is between 6930 to 6950
• Volumes are very low in this rally which is concern for us
• Short term support is around 6795 and main support is at 6550
• we are going very light on our positions at these levels

• Market sentiment truns nagitives again after Trump orders Strait of Hormuz blockade
• Technically  SPX is still in uptrend  in short and mid term time frames
• As last week we hit the upside resistance area 6800 to 6850 we are expected slide downward from here
• Also we had negitive candle formation on firday
• Short term support is areound 6720 and main support is at 6550
• We likly to fill the gap this week omnce 6720 support is broken
• Bias is nagitive for now and i will look for short trades in any meaningful bounce today

U.S.-listed shares of JD.com rose over 2% after renowned investor Michael Burry disclosed fresh purchases in both JD and Alibaba.

Burry — best known for predicting the housing crash highlighted in The Big Short — revealed in a recent post that he initiated a new position in Alibaba (~6%) while significantly increasing his stake in JD.com, which now represents a larger allocation.

He emphasized that recent weakness in Chinese tech stocks created an “attractive entry point,” signaling a value-driven accumulation strategy.

⚡Technical Analysis

JD.com is holding a strong demand zone at $27–$30, suggesting a base formation after a prolonged downtrend.
Upside remains toward $45–$48 resistance if support holds; breakdown below $27 would invalidate the setup.

• All trends (short, mid and long) are now in uptrend 
• We are getting closer to major resistance
• Hourly charts are in overbought zone now and there is big gap to fill in coming days
• We crossed the first  resistance  6800 yesterday
• Today we expect to touch 6850 on higher side but there profit taking later on
• Main Support is still very far at 6550
• For short term support is around 6740
• I prefer staying cautious before going to weekend

The market looks like it’s setting a bull trap here. Expect downside continuation to fill the lower gap, with a potential move toward ~598 (-1.25%) by today's closing, aligning with key support and the 50-day EMA.
Moving forward, it will try to fill the gap and continue its bearish momentum.

• All trends (short, mid and long) are now changed to uptrend now
• Today we expect to trade positive to sideways
• Still we have upside first resistance is around 6800 and second is at 6850
• Main Support is still very far at 6550
• For short term support is around 6740 (yesterday's low)
• Stay cautious there are still multiple risks in this market

I’ve combined high-timeframe technical structure with a 10Y Revenue Exit DCF model, and the setup is starting to align with long-term value & technical bottoming out.

Fundamentals (DCF)

• Price: $16.67
• Fair Value: ~$24.46
• Upside: ~47%

~ Conservative assumptions still show clear undervaluation.

Technicals

• Multi-year downtrend → base forming ($14–18)
• Huge volume spike → possible accumulation
• Holding trendline support

Key Levels:

• $24–26: Breakout trigger
• $38–40: Major resistance
• $50+: Full recovery zone

⚡ Trade Idea

• Buy Zone: $14 - 16
• Stop: 13.48
• Targets: $25 → $40 → $50+

Model Portfolio - Update

There is a new position added today.

📊 Check the google sheet here:https://tinywebs.site/gPWnHU

Also few option positions added in hedge Portfolio Tab (in our real Account)

NOTE: The following model portfolio is for educational purposes only. 📚 My goal is to show you the mechanics of how we manage short-term investments and risk. This is not a buy/sell recommendation or financial advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before investing! 

• Finally wait is over and market is ready big jump after meaningful ceasefire 
• As mentioned yesterday technically  SPX was  positive as it closed above 6600 again
• that expected 100 to 200 point rally day is today
• Upside first resistance is around 6800 and second is at 6850
• Support is now at 6550
• Look for long trades in any meaningful pull back in early of the day

If geopolitical escalation occurs → gold acts as a safe haven → upside breakout likely.

Current Context

• Price: ~$4665
• Structure: Range-bound consolidation after sharp sell-off recovery
• Key Observation: Compression inside a tight horizontal range (~4630–4700 zone)
• Moving averages curling upward → early bullish momentum rebuilding

⚡ Trade Thesis

Gold is coiling within a range, and markets are likely waiting for a macro trigger (Trump deadline @ 8 PM).

This creates a classic volatility expansion setup.

Bullish Scenario (Primary Plan)

• Entry Zone: Current levels / breakout above ~4700 confirmation
• Target: 4850
• Upside Potential: ~4%
• Stop Loss: 4594

Why this works:

• Strong impulsive recovery already seen from lows (~4340 → 4700), showing a short-term upside trend
• Consolidation = accumulation, not distribution (so far)
• Liquidity likely sitting above range highs

Structural Macro Perspective (Longer-Term Bullish Case)

Beyond immediate geopolitical triggers, there are deeper structural shifts supporting gold:

• There is a growing trend of oil trade diversification away from the U.S. dollar, with discussions around settlements in Chinese yuan (“petroyuan”), especially involving countries like Iran and China. This could gradually challenge dollar dominance in global energy markets. 
• At the same time, China has been consistently accumulating gold reserves, with central bank purchases continuing for over a year, reflecting a strategic move to reduce reliance on USD-based assets. 
• More broadly, global central banks have been increasing gold holdings as part of a de-dollarization trend, positioning gold as a neutral reserve asset in an increasingly fragmented financial system.

• Market is in wait and watch mode before Big Deadline Day.
• Technically  SPX is positive in short term as we closed above 6600 yesterday after 3 weeks, and also  above on 20 and 200 EMA
• But be aware that in such event day technical doesn't matter much
• We can expect 100 to 200 point upside in coming days if we get the deal and Start gets open
• But downside we can  expect bigger move on bad news, if SPX  recent lows around 6300 breached 
• Still practice caution in this market and trade small

• Bias: I am personally, moderately bullish on NQ futures from current levels (~24,285).
• Upside target: 24,625 (confluence with descending trendline resistance).
• Key condition: Bullish scenario holds only if support at 24,180 remains intact.
• Resistance factor: Presence of a clear descending trendline capping price action.
• Market driver: Positive geopolitical developments (e.g., ceasefire news) supporting risk sentiment.
• Risk factor: Markets remain highly reactive—any negative Trump-related headlines could trigger sharp downside moves.
• Overall view: Tactical long bias with tight risk awareness due to headline sensitivity.
  
  DISCLAIMER: It's my personal view on the market. Be Aware of the volatility.

• Today market looks good at start of new week aimed 45-day ceasefire news
• Last week we had positive close despite of lots concerns for over the weekend fight
• Technical SPX made good candle and we are near 6600 important levels now
• Mid term trend still remains down to sideways
• Key support area are for intraday support is around 6520 now 
• Today upside we can expect 6630 to 6674.
• If we confirm new to reopen of  Strait we can expect bhumper move to upside today
• Still practice cautious as long as Oil is trading over 100 

• Futures are going lower from last night since Trump speech 
• SPX made bearish candle after rejection from 20 EMA and 6600 levels  
• Mid term trend still remains down
• Key support area are for intraday support is around 6450 now 
• If 6450 break we can close toward recent lows
• Closing above 6500 can be still positive for next week

Check  my 100K Model Portfolio.

I wanted to give you guys a clear look at how I actually manage things behind the scenes—specifically how I handle short-term moves, manage risk, and stay on top of the market.

📊 Check the google sheet here: https://tinywebs.site/gPWnHU

How it works:

Whenever I make a move, I’ll update the sheet immediately so you can see the changes in real-time.

You’ll see everything: what I’m holding, the buy prices, and the position sizes.

Note to the group: The following model portfolio is for educational purposes only. 📚 My goal is to show you the mechanics of how we manage short-term investments and risk. This is not a buy/sell recommendation or financial advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before investing! 
 

• The chart shows a repeated range distribution phase after an uptrend, where price consolidates near highs before breaking down.
• In both instances, price loses the range support and accelerates downward, indicating supply dominance.
• The breakdown is followed by a sharp impulsive move with increased volatility, not a gradual decline.
• After the initial drop, price attempts a weak relief bounce (lower high) before continuing lower.
• This structure reflects a classic distribution → breakdown → continuation pattern, suggesting further downside bias.
  
  Do you also see this repeating distribution-to-breakdown structure, or are you interpreting this price action differently?
  ~ I am expecting a further 10% downside in April from current levels.

• Yesterday we see much waited bounce in the markets
• SPX gave about 3% move fueled by positive news on US-Iran war
• Short term trend changed to upside as we can see on hourly chart closed above 50 EMA 
• Mid term trend still remains down
• Key support area are for intraday support is around 6500 now 
• key levels to watch for upside today would be  6600 
• Closing above 6600 may lead this rally toward 6700 in coming days

Technical Analysis

• Golden retracement support holding (0.618–0.65 zone): Price has reacted strongly around ~$96–98, indicating institutional demand and a high-probability reversal zone.
• Double bottom formation developing: The recent price action shows a clear W-structure, suggesting potential trend reversal if the neckline (~$100) is reclaimed.
• Trendline + structure confluence: Price is attempting to move back toward the broken ascending trendline — reclaiming this could trigger momentum toward $125–135.
• Short-term bullish shift above EMAs: A move above 20 EMA (~$100) can act as confirmation for continuation, while failure keeps price range-bound.
  
  Fundamental Perspective
• Trading near depressed valuation levels: UPS is hovering close to its post-COVID lows, indicating valuation compression despite stable business fundamentals.
• Strong logistics moat: As a global leader in parcel delivery, UPS benefits from long-term e-commerce tailwinds and supply chain dependency.
• Margin pressure priced in: Recent weakness reflects cost pressures and volume slowdown — much of this negativity appears already discounted.
• Cash flow + dividends support downside: UPS remains a strong cash-generating company with consistent dividend payouts, making it attractive for long-term investors.

• SPX could not sustain monring and closed again in red yesterday
• SPX on both daily and hourly chart is in oversold and a bounce is expected soon
• Short and mid term trend remains down
• Key support area are for short term support is around 6340 but support area between 6100 to 6240.
• key levels to watch for upside would be  6500 to 6550 where bounce rally can exhaust!

There’s a special kind of corporate embarrassment that doesn’t come from blowing up, but from quietly losing the spotlight.

Nike is still the biggest sportswear brand on the planet. Still pulling in billions. Still everywhere on athletes. But with the stock sitting around $50 — near nine‑year lows and down about 70% from its 2021 high — Tuesday’s earnings come with one big question: is the reset actually working?

Three things matter right now.

Europe is slowing as consumers pull back, and premium sneakers are usually one of the first things to go. In the US, Nike’s attempt to rebuild its wholesale business is taking longer than hoped, with retailer relationships and profits still under pressure. And China just hasn’t bounced the way everyone expected — local brands are winning, sentiment is soft, and recovery keeps getting pushed out.

Wall Street expects about $11.1 billion in quarterly revenue, basically flat year over year but better than last year’s decline. Earnings are expected to come in at 29 cents a share. Nike beat last quarter, so expectations aren’t high — but they do exist.

What to watch Today

The numbers matter, but the real tell will be how management talks about China and wholesale. Are they calmly executing a plan, or quietly rewriting it? At $50, Nike looks cheap compared to its past. But cheap doesn’t mean the stock is done falling.

 

What’s your outlook for Nike? Share your views in the comments!
 

• Adobe is trading at a major support zone near its COVID lows, and now even below it, signaling extreme fear and capitulation in the market.
• The trend remains bearish (price below key EMAs), but RSI is deeply oversold, indicating a high probability of a short-term relief bounce.
• Immediate upside can be seen toward 50 EMA / $320–$350 zone, while:
  • $285 - 325 reclaim → early strength
  • $435+ hold → potential trend shift
• From a fundamental lens, trading below COVID levels reflects valuation compression at historically attractive levels for a high-quality, cash-generating, market-leading company.
• This setup creates a classic case of:
  → Short-term bounce potential
  → Long-term accumulation opportunity if structure stabilizes